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Epidemiological Characteristics and Forecast of COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Journal of Korean Medical Science 2020년 35권 24호 p.227 ~ 227
Semenova Yuliya, Glushkova Natalya, Pivina Lyudmila, Khismetova Zaituna, Zhunussov Yersin, Sandybaev Marat, Ivankov Alexandr,
소속 상세정보
 ( Semenova Yuliya ) - Semey Medical University Department of Neurology, Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology
 ( Glushkova Natalya ) - Semey Medical University Department of Personalized Medicine
 ( Pivina Lyudmila ) - Semey Medical University Department of Internal Medicine
 ( Khismetova Zaituna ) - Semey Medical University Department of Public Health
 ( Zhunussov Yersin ) - Semey Medical University Head Office
 ( Sandybaev Marat ) - Regional Oncology Hospital Head Office
 ( Ivankov Alexandr ) - Kazakh Medical University of Continuing Education Postgraduate Department

Abstract


Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic entered Kazakhstan on 13 March 2020 and quickly spread over its territory. This study aimed at reporting on the rates of COVID-19 in the country and at making prognoses on cases, deaths, and recoveries through predictive modeling. Also, we attempted to forecast the needs in professional workforce depending on implementation of quarantine measures.

Methods: We calculated both national and local incidence, mortality and case-fatality rates, and made forecast modeling via classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. The Health Workforce Estimator tool was utilized for forecast modeling of health care workers capacity.

Results: The vast majority of symptomatic patients had mild disease manifestations and the proportion of moderate disease was around 10%. According to the SEIR model, there will be 156 thousand hospitalized patients due to severe illness and 15.47 thousand deaths at the peak of an outbreak if no measures are implemented. Besides, this will substantially increase the need in professional medical workforce. Still, 50% compliance with quarantine may possibly reduce the deaths up to 3.75 thousand cases and the number of hospitalized up to 9.31 thousand cases at the peak.

Conclusion: The outcomes of our study could be of interest for policymakers as they help to forecast the trends of COVID-19 outbreak, the demands for professional workforce, and to estimate the consequences of quarantine measures.

키워드

COVID-19; Kazakhstan; Forecast Modeling; Quarantine; Workforce

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