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Modeling of transmission pathways on canine heartworm dynamics

대한수의학회지 2020년 60권 1호 p.15 ~ 18
서샛별 ( Seo Sat-Byul ) - Kyungnam University Department of Mathematics Education

Abstract


Canine heartworm disease is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted from dog to dog by mosquitoes. It causes epidemicsthat disrupt the health environments of dogs and are burdensome for many dog owners. Recent trends of changing temperatures andweather conditions in South Korea may have an impact on the population of mosquitoes, and it affects the population of dogs at risk ofheartworm infection. Mathematical modeling has become an important measure for analyzing the epidemiological characteristics ofinfectious diseases. However, canine heartworm infection transmission has not been reported yet through mathematical modeling. Wedevelop a mathematical model of canine heartworm infection to predict the population of infected dogs depending on the vector(mosquito) population using a susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered model. Simulation results show that after 1 year, 3,289dogs out of 73,602 (about 4.5%) are exposed and 134 (about 0.2%) are infected. Only 0.2% of susceptible dogs become infected after1 year. However, if all exposed dogs are maintained in the same circumstances without any treatment, then the number of infectedsubjects will increase over time. This may increase the possibility of other dogs, especially dogs that live outside, being infected.

키워드

Dirofilaria immitis; vector-borne disease; mathematical model; epidemiology
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