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Baseline Framingham risk score does not predict future ECG-derived QRS duration over an average of 3.3 years

International Journal of Arrhythmia 2020년 21권 1호 p.16 ~ 16
Stone Elijah, Zhou Yuling, Jelinek Herbert F., McLachlan Craig S.,
소속 상세정보
 ( Stone Elijah ) - University of New South Wales Rural Clinical School
 ( Zhou Yuling ) - Xiamen University Xiamen Cardiovascular Hospital
 ( Jelinek Herbert F. ) - Charles Stuart University School of Health Sciences
 ( McLachlan Craig S. ) - Torrens University Australia Health Faculty Centre for Healthy Futures

Abstract


Background: Prolonged electrocardiogram (ECG) QRS duration has been associated with increased cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether the main predictor of cardiovascular risk, the Framingham risk score also predicts short-term changes in ECG QRS duration. Our aim is to determine whether baseline Framingham risk score is associated with baseline or changes in QRS duration.

Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional analysis was performed using observational data obtained from two hundred two participants. Framingham risk score was calculated using an online risk calculator. QRS duration was obtained using a 10 s trace from a Welch Allyn PC-based 12-lead ECG system.

Results: Average follow-up duration was 3.3?±?1.1 years. Mean QRS change was 1.8?±?11.4 ms. Specifically, among two hundred two participants, there are 104 subjects with a greater QRS duration at follow-up, while 98 subjects had the same or a shorter follow-up QRS duration. Baseline Framingham risk score did not significantly predict an increase in QRSd with an odds ratio of 1.04 (P?=?0.230). Regression analysis of QRS duration at baseline and Framingham risk at baseline had a weak association (R2?=?0.020; P?=?0.043). The Framingham risk score at follow-up was likewise has a weak association with follow-up QRS duration (R2?=?0.045; P?=?0.002).

Conclusions: Our results do not demonstrate a statistically significant association between Framingham risk parameters and future QRS duration changes over longitudinal time. QRS duration had variable changes between baseline and follow-up. This might suggest that a longer period of follow-up is required to document more stable increases in QRS duration associated with ventricular pathology. A larger population study is needed to confirm our observations.

키워드

ECG; QRS duration; Framingham risk score; Population study; Rural

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