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기후변화시나리오와 비정상성 빈도분석을 이용한 도시유형별 목표연도 설계강우량 제시 및 치수안전도 변화 전망

Predicting the Design Rainfall for Target Years and Flood Safety Changes by City Type using Non-Stationary Frequency Analysis

한국환경과학회지 2020년 29권 9호 p.871 ~ 883
정세진, 강동호, 김병식,
소속 상세정보
정세진 ( Jeung Se-Jin ) - Kangwon Institute of Inclusive Technology
강동호 ( Kang Dong-Ho ) - Kangwon National University School of Disaster Prevention Department of Urban Environmental and Disaster Management
김병식 ( Kim Byung-Sik ) - Kangwon National University School of Disaster Prevention Department of Urban Environmental and Disaster Management

Abstract


Due to recent heavy rain events, there are increasing demands for adapting infrastructure design, including drainage facilities in urban basins. Therefore, a clear definition of urban rainfall must be provided; however, currently, such a definition is unavailable. In this study, urban rainfall is defined as a rainfall event that has the potential to cause water-related disasters such as floods and landslides in urban areas. Moreover, based on design rainfall, these disasters are defined as those that causes excess design flooding due to certain rainfall events. These heavy rain scenarios require that the design of various urban rainfall facilities consider design rainfall in the target years of their life cycle, for disaster prevention. The average frequency of heavy rain in each region, inland and coastal areas, was analyzed through a frequency analysis of the highest annual rainfall in the past year. The potential change in future rainfall intensity changes the service level of the infrastructure related to hand-to-hand construction; therefore, the target year and design rainfall considering the climate change premium were presented. Finally, the change in dimensional safety according to the RCP8.5 climate change scenario was predicted.

키워드

RCP climate change scenario; Climate change premium; Non-stationary

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