잠시만 기다려 주세요. 로딩중입니다.

Estimation of the reproduction number and early prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using a statistical computing approach

Epidemiology and Health 2020년 42권 1호 p.28 ~ 28
Kanagarathinam Karthick, Sekar Kavaskar,
소속 상세정보
 ( Kanagarathinam Karthick ) - GMR Institute of Technology Department of EEE
 ( Sekar Kavaskar ) - Panimalar Engineering College Department of EEE

Abstract


Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R0). This work is focused on predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stage in India based on an estimation of R0. The developed model will help policymakers to take active measures prior to the further spread of COVID-19. Data on daily newly infected cases in India from March 2, 2020 to April 2, 2020 were to estimate R0 using the earlyR package. The maximum-likelihood approach was used to analyze the distribution of R0 values, and the bootstrap strategy was applied for resampling to identify the most likely R0 value. We estimated the median value of R0 to be 1.471 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.351 to 1.592) and predicted that the new case count may reach 39,382 (95% CI, 34,300 to 47,351) in 30 days.

키워드

Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Forecasting; Statistical computing

원문 및 링크아웃 정보

 

등재저널 정보