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Predicting climate-driven shifts in the breeding phenology of Varied Tits (Sittiparus various) in South Korean forests

Animal Cells and Systems 2019년 23권 6호 p.422 ~ 432
정민수, 최창영, 김한규, 이우신,
소속 상세정보
정민수 ( Jeong Min-Su ) - Seoul National University Department of Forest Sciences
최창영 ( Choi Chang-Young ) - Seoul National University Department of Forest Sciences
김한규 ( Kim Han-Kyu ) - Seoul National University Department of Forest Sciences
이우신 ( Lee Woo-Shin ) - Seoul National University Department of Forest Sciences

Abstract


Phenological shifts of plants and animals due to climate change can vary among regions and species, requiring study of local ecosystems to understand specific impacts. The reproductive timing of insectivorous songbirds in temperate forests is tightly synchronized with peak prey abundance, and thus they can be susceptible to such shift in timing. We aimed to investigate the effect of future climate change on the egg-laying phenology of the Varied Tit (Sittiparus various), which is common and widely distributed in South Korean forests. We developed the predictive model by investigating their egg-laying dates in response to spring temperatures along geographical gradients, and our model indicated that the tits lay eggs earlier when the average of daily mean and daily maximum temperatures rise. We predicted future shifts in egg-laying dates based on the most recent climate change model published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under a scenario with no climate change mitigation and under a scenario with moderate mitigation. Under this outcome, this species might be unable to adapt to rapid climate change due to asynchrony with prey species during the reproductive period. If no mitigation is undertaken, our model predicts that egg-laying dates will be advanced by more than 10 days compared to the present in 83.58% of South Korea. However, even moderate mitigation will arrest this phenomenon and maintain present egg-laying dates. These results demonstrate the first quantitative assessment for the effect of warming temperatures on the phenological response of insectivorous songbirds in South Korea.

키워드

Breeding phenology; climate change; egg-laying date; insectivorous songbirds; forest ecosystem

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