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우리나라 都市人口 增加推計에 關한 硏究

A Study on Urban Population Growth of Korea

공중보건잡지 1971년 8권 1호 p.145 ~ 150
김동희,
소속 상세정보
김동희 (  ) - 서울대학교 보건대학원

Abstract


A study was carried out to project population growth of five major cities, Seoul, Pusan, Inchon, Taegu, Kwangju, using the Geometric growth formula. Author used census data of 1955, 1960 and 1966, and also carefully evaluated estimate of end of year, 1968.
The results were summerized as follows;
1) Population of five major cities will continuously increase.
2) In 1971, Inchon and Kwangju ranked as 4th and 5th largest cities in Korea respectively. By the year 1986, however, this order will be reversed due to the faster growth of Kwangju city.
3) In terms of population proportion of the five major cities, three cities, namely Seoul, Kwangju and Taegu will continuously increase proportionately, while Pusan will decrease from 13.83% in 1971 to 12.2% in 1985, and Inchon will decrease from 4.91% in 1971 to 4.23% in 1985.
4) The population of Seoul, Kwangju and Taegu will double within the next fifteen years.
5) By 1985, the population of Seoul will reach 10 million.
6) By 1985, the population of Seoul will hold 46% of the total urban population which means 50% of the urban population in Korea will be concentrated in Seoul.
7) Changes in population distribution by sub-national area is more seriously affected by internal migration caused by economic, cultural and industrialization than natural growth of population itself.
8) Future population by age and sex is shown in table 4.

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