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우리나라의 人口增加 趨勢에 關한 硏究

A Study on the Trend of Population Growth in Korea

공중보건잡지 1974년 11권 2호 p.169 ~ 174
이영조, 이영환,
소속 상세정보
이영조 ( Lee Young-Jo ) - 서울대학교 보건대학원
이영환 ( Lee Young-Hwan ) - 서울대학교 보건대학원

Abstract


This study is an attempt to project the future Korean population by logistic curve fitting procedure. The data used are the population of late Yi-dynasty and census population of 1920 to 1970. They have been analyzed by the three-point method of the simple logistic curve by G.U. Yule, and the future population was projected. Results obtained are as follows:
1) The population P by the simple logistic curve is expressed by formula (A), increase velocity by (B) and increase rate by (C). The graph of Fig. 1is based on Table 3.
2) The time required for doubling population is estimated at about 30 years from formula (D) which assumed that talc increase rata of past 10 years would be maintained. On the other hand the duration of doubling of population in 1970 estimated by logistic curve is 75 years, that is, at 2045.
3) Table 5 shows the comparison of estimated population. Thc logistic curve method shows the lowest population increase among them.
4) The population trend in Korea is shown to fit this logistic curve fairly well.

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