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日日新入院數의 確率分布에 對한 事例硏究

A Case Study on Probability Distribution of Daily Hospital Admissions

공중보건잡지 1975년 12권 2호 p.253 ~ 262
전종권,
소속 상세정보
전종권 (  ) - 서울대학교 보건대학원

Abstract


In order to estimate the more correct demand for hosptital services, two factors, the admission rate and length of stay have received the attention of a number of operations research teams working in hospitals, for these factors influence the rise and fall in the hospital census. However, little effort has been direct toward this kind of problem in Korea.
This study is to examine if the admissions per day in the Korean hospitals could be described by the Poisson distribution, which was shown in the American hospitals. The data for this study were collected from two general hospitals in Seoul. In one hospital with 250 beds, the study covered total inpatients admitted for 305 days, during the period from September 1, 1974 to October 31, 1975 except Saturdays and Sundays. In the other hospital with 450 beds, the data included the number of inpatients admitted to each of the three departments, medicine, surgery and obstetrics, for 260 days during June 1, 1974-May 31, 1975 except Saturdays and Sundays.
Major findings from this study can be summarized as follwos:
1. During the study period, average number of admission day was 16 in hospital A and 7.3, 8.4, and 3.4 in the departments of midicine, surgery, and obstetrics of hospital B respectively.
2. Daily admissions in hospital A showed the general tendency of Poisson distribution althogh there was considerable discrepancy.
3. The inpatients admaitted to the dapartments of medicine and surgery of hospital B showed less discrepancy from Poisson distribution than in hospital A.
4. When admissions to the departments of medicine and surgery were observed separately, the daily distribution of inpatients admitted to the department of medicine was closer to Poisson distribution than that of inpatients admitted to the surgery department.
5. The distribution of daily admissions to obstetrics department was boserved to be almost the same with Poisson distribution.
6. The above findings suggest that the admissions per day can be fairly accurately described by Poisson distribution in Korean hospitals. However, these findings should not be generalized since this study included only two hospitals. In order to obtain information of practical utility, more extensive studies may be required.

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