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한국의 이비인후과 전문의 수 현황과 향후 예측

Current Status and Future Forecast of the Number of Otolaryngologists in Korea

이지연, 김진국, 조재훈,
소속 상세정보
이지연 ( Lee Ji-Yeon ) - Konkuk University School of Medicine Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery
김진국 ( Kim Jin-Kook ) - Konkuk University School of Medicine Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery
조재훈 ( Cho Jae-Hoon ) - Konkuk University School of Medicine Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery

Abstract


Background and Objectives : The number of otolaryngologists in Korea has increased rapidlyin recent years. However, as the population is expected to decrease gradually, it is necessaryto study the appropriate number of otolaryngologists.

Subjects and Method : We counted the number of otolaryngologists certified annually andthe number of currently active otolaryngologists, and estimated the retirement time from thisdata. In addition, the statistics from the National Statistical Office were used to survey the totalpopulation and the youth population under the age of 14 up to 2060. Finally, changes in the numberof active otolaryngologists and the population per otolaryngologist were predicted by 2060.

Results : The total number of otolaryngologists certified by 2020 was 4699, and the number ofactive otolaryngologists in 2019 was 3950. The average duration of retirement is about 36.5 years,and it is expected to be 40 years soon. Currently, 77.4% of otolaryngologists are practitioners,and 51.3% are working in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. In 2009, the number of people per otolaryngologistwas about 17000, whereas in 2019 it was sharply reduced to about 13000. If 120 otolaryngologistsare produced each year, it decreases to about 10000 by 2060. However, if thenumber of new otolaryngologists is reduced to 100 per year, it can be maintained at around 12000in 2060. In any case, however, the number of patients under 14 years of age cannot be preventedfrom falling sharply.

Conclusion : It is necessary to adjust the number of otolaryngologists to account for populationdecline.

키워드

Forecasting; Korea; Otolaryngology; Trends

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